Are The Oscars Too Predictable This Year?

Are The Oscars Too Predictable This Year?

On Oprah, Roger Ebert said " I can't remember a year when it seemed easier to predict the Oscars." 

Published March 4, 2010

oscars2010 On Oprah , Roger Ebert said " I can't remember a year when it seemed easier to predict the Oscars."  I agree, hopefully the Oscars will have some shockers Sunday night, but all the winners seemed etched in Hollywood stone.  Check out my list below, the ones in bold are the ones that will more than likely win and the nominees in red are the ones that should win.

Best Picture
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up in the Air

Avatar was a good movie and something we've never seen before, but most agree that the script was a recycled version of Dances With Wolves or Pocahontas .  I don't think it deserves best picture, but a film that is the most expensive of all time seems to knock out the competition.  In my opinion, the most original film of the year, the most groundbreaking and truly something we've never seen before is Precious .  This movie is once in a lifetime.

Best Director
James Cameron, 'Avatar'
Kathryn Bigelow, 'The Hurt Locker'
Quentin Tarantino, 'Inglourious Basterds'
Lee Daniels, 'Precious'
Jason Reitman, 'Up in the Air'

You just can't compete with Hollywood billionaires. Again, Avatar was good, but I don't think anyone's vision, and I have seen all of these movies, was carried out better than Precious .  This was such a challenging story to bring to the big screen and it took a truly brilliant mind to do it.  There is a chance that Cameron's ex-wife, Kathryn Bigelow, will win for The Hurt Locker .

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, 'Crazy Heart'
George Clooney, 'Up in the Air'
Colin Firth, 'A Single Man'
Morgan Freeman, 'Invictus'
Jeremy Renner, 'The Hurt Locker'

Bridges was good in Crazy Heart but I have seen so many films about a drunken country singer who makes a comeback.  Colin Firth in A Single Man was edgy yet subtle, humanizing a character that could've easily been unrelatable.  As Oprah said about his performance, "That is what acting is all about!"

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, 'The Blind Side'
Helen Mirren, 'The Last Station'
Carey Mulligan, 'An Education'
Gabourey Sidibe, 'Precious'
Meryl Streep, 'Julie and Julia'

The Academy Awards is insisting on giving Bullock this Oscar, this is her year and she has paid her dues.  I liked The Blind Side , but I didn't see or feel an Oscar worthy performance.  The character remained the same throughout the film, there was no climatic moment,  Bullock was good compared to her other films -- but her performance in Crash was much more Oscar worthy than The Blind Side .  She deserved the nomination, but I thought she was the weakest compared to the other three (still a great performance).  If I had to chose, I would go with Sidibe in Precious .

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, 'Invictus'
Woody Harrelson, 'The Messenger'
Christopher Plummer, 'The Last Station'
Stanley Tucci, 'The Lovely Bones'
Christoph Waltz, 'Inglourious Basterds'

If you haven't seen The Messenger you are missing out on an excellent performance from Woody Harrelson.  Next to Mo'Nique, his performance is the best of the year by anyone nominated.  Nonetheless, the Oscar will go to Christoph Waltz.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, 'Nine'
Vera Farmiga, 'Up in the Air'
Maggie Gyllenhaal, 'Crazy Heart'
Anna Kendrick, 'Up in the Air'
Mo'nique, 'Precious'

Mo'Nique will win and she deserves it.  Her performance will go down with greats in a cinematic history.  I am still as deeply moved by her portrayal as Mary Jones as I was the first time I saw it.

Best Original Screenplay
'The Hurt Locker'
'Inglourious Basterds'
'The Messenger'
'A Serious Man'

It will be The Hurt Locker (possibly Inglourious Basterds ).  Being that The Hurt Locker won't win best film, I can see the Oscar giving it this win. Overall, The Messnger , which is about delivering news to families whose family members have died in the war, deserves the win.

Best Adapted Screenplay
'District 9'
''An Education'
'In the Loop'
'Up in the Air'

Up in the Air was an early front-runner for best film and now that Avatar is in the running, I think it will win this award.  There is a slight chance Precious might win best adapted screenplay, which it deserves, but I can't see a George Clooney film walking away with nothing Oscar night.

I could be wrong about the possible winner but we will see Oscar night -- you never know!

Who do you think will win?

Written by Clay Cane


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