The BET Awards 2026 Video of the Year race is crowded, but it is not especially hard to see who the frontrunner could be.

The field includes Ella Mai’s “100,” Doechii’s “Anxiety,” Mariah the Scientist’s “Burning Blue,” Tyla’s “Chanel,” Teyana Taylor’s “Escape Room (Short Film),” Kehlani’s “Folded,” T.I.’s “Let ’Em Know,” and Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s “luther.” 

On paper, “luther” has the cleanest path to the trophy. The song already won Record of the Year at the 2026 Grammys, and it also won Outstanding Music Video/Visual Album at the NAACP Image Awards. 

Lamar is not coming into the BET conversation cold, either: at the 2025 BET Awards, he was the night’s biggest winner, taking Album of the Year, Best Male Hip Hop Artist, Video of the Year for “Not Like Us,” and Best Collaboration with SZA on “luther,” while also sharing Video Director of the Year honors with Dave Free. Lamar is a golden goose.

That is why “luther” feels like the frontrunner even before the vote gets serious. It has the biggest combination of prestige, familiarity, and crossover reach in the field, and it comes from two artists who have already proven they can dominate both the culture conversation and awards ballots. Though the rest of the category has real merit.

The most credible threats are Doechii and Taylor. “Anxiety” keeps Doechii top of mind, while “Escape Room” gives Taylor a bigger visual argument than most of the field, especially since she is also nominated for Video Director of the Year under Teyana “Spike-Tey” Taylor. Still, Taylor’s ambition may be split between the video itself and her directing nod, and that opens the door wider for “luther.” 

The bottom line: if BET voters go with the video with the most momentum, the broadest recognition, and the strongest track record already attached to it, “luther” should walk away with Video of the Year. If the category wants to reward the most experimental package, then Taylor has a case. But right now, this still looks like Kendrick and SZA’s race to lose.