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NBA Playoffs 2025: Who the Money Thinks Will Win the First Round

Vegas has spoken: Find out who the experts are backing in the NBA Playoffs and which teams could surprise.

The NBA postseason is officially upon us, and Vegas oddsmakers have dropped their predictions for who's handling business in the first round. The Cleveland Cavaliers have locked up the East's top seed with an wild 64-18 record nobody saw coming, but out West LeBron and the Lakers still have fans everywhere putting their money on LA despite rolling in as just the third seed.

Let's break down who the analysts expect to advance when the NBA Playoffs tip off this Saturday (April 19):

Eastern Conference: Cavs Looking Strong
Cleveland finished with that monster 64-18 record and analytics experts are showing them major love. According to FTN's simulations, the Cavs have a 51.3% chance to make the Finals—way higher than many mainstream predictions would suggest.

For the matchups already locked in:

  • Knicks vs. Pistons: New York is strongly favored despite Detroit owning them 3-1 in the regular season. The experts clearly aren't buying what the Pistons are selling.
  • Pacers vs. Bucks: Indiana is expected to handle Giannis and company, even with Damian Lillard seemingly on the path to playing after being sidelined due to blood clots.

Meanwhile, the play-in tournament has the Magic projected to advance past the Hawks while the Bulls have the slightest edge over the Heat according to most NBA analysts.

Western Conference: Thunder Making Noise
Oklahoma City rolled up as the top seed and is considered the championship favorite by many Vegas experts. Check this—FTN's model thinks they're even better than most analysts are giving them credit for, (44.9% chance to take the whole championship).

The first-round matchups to watch:

  • Lakers vs. Timberwolves: Experts expect King James and Luka the crew to push past Minnesota.
  • Nuggets vs. Clippers: Denver is projected to advance, but analytics suggest experts might be sleeping on the Clippers, who could pull off an upset.

The Western Conference play-in tournament features the Warriors expected to ghost ride past the Grizzlies for the 7-seed, while the Mavericks are slight favorites over the Kings in the 9-10 game according to NBA analytics experts.

The Full Championship Odds Breakdown
If you're looking to see who Vegas thinks is taking home the Larry O'Brien trophy, here's how the oddsmakers are ranking all playoff teams as of April 14:

The Heavy Favorites

  • Oklahoma City Thunder: +165 (DraftKings), +175 (BetMGM), +180 (ESPN BET)
  • Boston Celtics: +190 (DraftKings/FanDuel), +220 (BetMGM)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers: +490 (FanDuel), +700 (DraftKings)

The Serious Contenders

  • Los Angeles Lakers: +1300 (ESPN BET), +1700 (FanDuel)
  • Golden State Warriors: +2300 (FanDuel)
  • New York Knicks: +2800 (FanDuel)
  • Denver Nuggets: +2900 (FanDuel)

The Dark Horses

  • Minnesota Timberwolves: +3700 (FanDuel)
  • Los Angeles Clippers: +4300 (FanDuel)
  • Indiana Pacers: +6500 (FanDuel), +8000 (DraftKings)
  • Houston Rockets: +8000 (DraftKings)
  • Milwaukee Bucks: +11000 (DraftKings)

The Longshots

  • Memphis Grizzlies: +30000 (DraftKings)

Expert’s Underdogs
For those who follow predictions closely, the data suggests two teams are being seriously underestimated:

  • Cleveland to win Eastern Conference: The numbers suggest the Cavs should be considered co-favorites with Boston
  • LA Clippers to win Western Conference: Many analysts believe the Clips have a much better shot than conventional wisdom suggests

The NBA playoffs tip off Saturday, April 19, after the play-in tournament.

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